ECB macroeconomic models for forecasting and policy analysis: state of play – appraisal – way forward

Based on ECB Occasional Paper No 344, the webinar extracts key conclusions regarding three aspects: first, strengths and limitations of the various model classes currently used by the ECB (building on chapter 2 of the Occasional Paper); second, key policy applications of the various model types – where are their respective comparative advantages (building on chapter 3); third, the way forward – what are main areas of applications where further model development is most needed, which (new or adapted) model types will be particularly relevant, what are key foreseeable or likely challenges on the way forward (building on chapter 4). Two international experts will offer their own comments on the ECB’s macroeconomic forecasting and monetary policy evaluation modelling toolbox.

The workshop aims, among other, to be useful for researchers at other central banks and academic researchers to obtain an overview of the ECB’s current state of play and intended way forward regarding model development. It may point to areas where academic research can find useful niches and help identify potential synergies between future academic research and Eurosystem model development. Participants will have ample room to ask questions.

Program committee: Ernest Gnan (SUERF), Matthieu Darracq-Paries (ECB), Juha Kilponen (Bank of Finland) and Alessandro Notarpietro, Bank of Italy (Bank of Italy)