Webex
14:30-16:30 CET
Economic sentiment in Europe is weak. This applies both to consumers and businesses. What are the sources? Is European pessimism based on fundamental reasons (domestic, European, global; economic, socio-economic, political) or are (also) “animal spirits” (self-reinforcing mood swings, which may be driven by “zeitgeist” and media) at play? To what extent is “sentiment” actually relevant for actual economic developments? Shedding light on these questions is useful for designing the right policy responses: structural reforms, a support of aggregate demand, and/or the demonstration of strong and united government leadership, which sets in motion appropriate structural adjustments and is able to create a credible public narrative.
Scientific coordination: Ernest Gnan, SUERF, Geoff Kenny, ECB
Where do we stand with business and consumer sentiment across the EU? How does this compare historically? Where do we stand in international comparison?
Latest developments in business and consumer sentiment in Europe
Christian Gayer, Senior Expert, Business and Consumer Surveys and short-term Forecast · European Commission presentationLatest developments in business and consumer sentiment in France
Erwan Gautier, Head of the Microeconomic Analysis Division · Banque de France presentationLatest development of business surveys in Germany
Klaus Wohlrabe, Senior Economist, Head of Surveys · IFO Institut presentationShiller (2017, 2020) discusses how different narratives can shape sentiment (animal spirits) and drive economic fluctuations and especially recessions/booms. Andre et. al (2022) focus on inflation and macro narratives. Beyond geopolitics and military conflicts, fiscal sustainability and climate change, an important theme around which pessimistic narratives can develop is technology, at the current juncture most notably AI. How do US and euro area perspectives related to AI contrast?
Behavioral economics perspective on reduced consumption
Katharina Gangl, Head of Research Group · Institute for Advance Studies Vienna presentationGeopolitical risks and their implications for consumer expectations and spending
Geoff Kenny, Head of Monetary Economics Section, Directorate General Research · ECB presentationUsing text analysis to study media and sentiment
Alistair Macaulay, Surrey Future Fellow in Economics · University of Surrey presentationAre consumers’ current savings rates exaggerated by historical standards in the light of economic fundamentals? Is business investment abnormally low, against the medium to long-term outlook? To what extent does sentiment drive consumption/savings and investment?
