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Venue

European Stability Mechanism
6a, Circuit de La Foire Internationale
L-1347 Luxembourg
& online via Microsoft Teams

Format

hybrid, Luxembourg

Date

Thursday, April 3, 2025
Friday, April 4, 2025

In cooperation with

Europe faces a growing array of extreme risks that could significantly impact its economic stability, social cohesion, and geopolitical standing. From climate-related disasters to geopolitical conflicts, and from financial crises to technological risks and disruptions—events that were previously rare (the “Rare Disaster Events” as in Barro, 2006) now could become more frequent and possibly more intense. This event will bring together leading experts from academia, industry, government, and the financial sector to appraise, address, and communicate about extreme risk events and their possible consequences. The workshop aims also at discussing Europe’s readiness to face these risks and the policy architecture needed to enhance its resilience, drawing on European and international experiences.

Organising Committee: Giovanni Callegari (ESM), Ernest Gnan (SUERF), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (Bruegel), Rolf Strauch (ESM), Jeromin Zettelmeyer (Bruegel)

Program

Time
Thursday, 3 April 2025
10:30
Welcome and Introduction Remarks
Pierre Gramegna, Managing Director · European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
11:00
Academic Session 1: Climate risks and how to cope with them

Moderator: Marion Salines, Deputy Head, Policy Strategy and Institutional Relations Division · European Stability Mechanism (ESM)

Toward a European System for Natural Catastrophe Risk Management

Carlos Guine, EIOPA presentation

Climate-linked bonds

Dirk Broeders, European Central Bank (ECB) presentation

Co-author(s): Daniel Dimitrov, Niek Verhoeven

Broadening the scope of risk sharing through a European backstop for natural catastrophes

Martin Hahn, International Association of Insurance Supervisors presentation

Co-author(s): Bernhard Mayr

The macroeconomic implications of extreme weather events

John Hooley, OECD presentation

Co-author(s): Hélia Costa

12:30
Lunch
13:15
Academic Session 2: Geopolitical risks - implications for trade, economic growth and finance
Moderator: Lucio Pench, Non-Resident Fellow · Bruegel

Geopolitical Risk: when it matters; where it matters. Evidence from international portfolio allocations

Enrico Mallucci, Central Bank of Ireland presentation

Co-author(s): Nathan Converse

Trade and financial ties with geopolitically distant countries

Raffaele Giuliana, ESRB Secretariat presentation

Co-author(s): Magnus Andersson, Arthur Campos, Lorenzo Mangiola, Jonathan Rice, Cecilia Sarchi, Matteo Valetto

International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with sanctions

Galip Kemal Ozhan, International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Co-author(s): Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim

14:45
Keynote Lecture 1

Shifting Global Order: Resilience during the Transition

Markus Brunnermeier, Edwards S. Sanford Professor of Economics · Princeton University presentation
Introduced by Ernest Gnan, Secretary General · SUERF
15:30
Coffee
16:00
Academic Session 3: Macro-fiscal risks: assessment and readiness
Moderator: Giovanni Callegari, Head of Economic and Risk Analysis · European Stability Mechanism (ESM)

Macrofinancial stress-testing: A practical approach to risk identification and severity calibration in the European case

Pietro Dallari, European Investment Bank (EIB) presentation

Co-author(s): Luca Gattini

Global Debt-at-Risk

Raphael Lam, International Monetary Fund (IMF) presentation

Co-author(s): Domenico Giannone, Davide Furceri, Faizaan Kisat

Fiscal arrangements safeguarding the EU’s capacity to act in an evolving geopolitical and economic context

Martin Larch, European Fiscal Board I European Commission presentation
17:30
End - Day 1
Time
Friday, 4 April 2025
09:00
Keynote Lecture 2

European Security At All Costs? How the European Security Crisis Shapes Public Opinion

Catherine Eunice de Vries, Professor of Political Science · Bocconi University presentation
Introduced by Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist and Management Board Member · European Stability Mechanism (ESM)

09:45
Policy Panel 1: Extreme Geopolitical Risks: Is Europe Ready for a Fragmenting World Order?
Moderator: Jacob Kirkegaard, Senior Fellow · Bruegel
Harold James, Professor of History and International Affairs · Princeton University I SUERF Fellow
Ignacio Garcia Bercero, Non-resident Fellow · Bruegel
Klaus Regling, Former Managing Director of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
11:15
Coffee
11:45
Policy Panel 2: Financial Stability in the Age of Black Swans - Preparing for the Unknown
Moderator: Cornelia Holthausen, Director General, Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability · European Central Bank (ECB)
John Berrigan, Director General · European Commission, DG FISMA
Jón Danielsson, Director, Systemic Risk Centre, Department of Finance · LSE I SUERF Fellow presentation
Nicolas Veron, Senior Fellow · Bruegel I Senior Fellow · PIIE
13:15
Lunch
14:15
Policy Panel 3: The European Crisis Response Framework - Challenges and Opportunities
Moderator: Ernest Gnan, Secretary General · SUERF
Elke König, Former Chair of the Single Resolution Board (SRB)
Lucio Pench, Non-Resident Fellow · Bruegel presentation
Mahmood Pradhan, Head of Global Macro · Amundi Investment Institute
Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist and Management Board Member · European Stability Mechanism (ESM) presentation
15:45
Closing Remarks
Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist and Management Board Member · European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
16:00
End
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