Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna
& online via Webex
Kindly note that you will be redirected to co-organizer website for the registration.
Conference motivation
In recent years, monetary policymakers worldwide have faced a series of profound shocks that have significantly reshaped economic structures and supply conditions. These challenges are set to persist, driven by a combination of both negative and positive factors: geopolitical risks, rising trade barriers, rapid technological advances – including breakthroughs in artificial intelligence -, climate change, the transition to sustainable energy systems, and shifting demographic and societal trends. These changes have far-reaching implications for productivity growth and labor markets. The interplay between these factors affects wages, relative prices and inflation, and overall economic stability. The role of monetary policy in navigating these complexities raises questions about how central banks can effectively respond to evolving conditions while safeguarding price stability and supporting sustainable economic growth and employment. This conference brings together policymakers, academics, and financial industry experts. The first day will feature policy-oriented discussions to encourage analytical exchange between policymakers and academic researchers. The second day will offer a platform for presenting and discussing research in an academic format.
Scientific coordination: Ernest Gnan, SUERF, Birgit Niessner, OeNB, and María Teresa Valderrama, OeNB
This session will examine the evolving nature of inflation in the face of recent global challenges. Factors such as shifts in supply chains, geopolitical risks, technological advancements, and policy responses are reshaping inflationary pressures in unprecedented ways. Experts will discuss the challenges central banks encounter when structural shifts—such as climate change, the energy transition, and technological advancements—lead to diverging inflation trends across goods and various types of services. The session will also address how central banks should account for and respond to structural changes in relative prices and sectoral supply shocks.
This session will delve into the intricate relationship between monetary policy and productivity growth, particularly in the context of recent global disruptions. Topics will include how monetary policy can support productivity growth and foster investment in productivity-enhancing technologies. The session will also examine how productivity growth—driven in part by AI—affects inflation and monetary policy, as well as the challenges and trade-offs that monetary policymakers may encounter. Additionally, the discussion will explore the role of monetary and fiscal policy coordination in this context and how productivity shocks and AI might influence these interactions.
This session will examine the evolving dynamics of global labor markets shaped by technological advancements, demographic shifts, and changing economic conditions. It will re-evaluate the modeling, interpretation, and relevance of the Phillips Curve. The discussion will also focus on the interaction between structural changes in the labor market—such as the rise of part-time work, skill polarization, digitalization, and automation (including AI)—and the Phillips Curve. Furthermore, the session will explore the effects of de-industrialization, de-globalization, and shifts in wage formation following the post-COVID era and the recent inflation surge, along with their implications for monetary policy.
The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Shocks: Evidence from Swedish Microdata
Peter Tillmann, University of GiessenCo-Author(s): David Finck; Mathias Klein
The Role of Food and Energy Prices in Driving Consumption Disparities
Rositsa Chankova, University of OxfordCo-Author(s): Momo Komatsu
Beware of large shocks! A non-parametric structural inflation model
Elena Bobeica , European Central BankCo-Author(s): Sarah Holton, Catalina Martinez Hernandez, Florian Huber
The Energy Origins of the Global Inflation Surge
Thomas Kroen, International Monetary FundCo-Author(s): Jorge Alvarez
Monetary Policy under Labor Market Power
Rui Mano, International Monetary FundCo-author(s): Anastasia Burya; Yannick Timmer; Anke Weber
Monetary policy, the bank-lending channel and labor market adjustment of firms
Ahmet Ali Taskin, Institute for Employment ResearchCo-Author(s): Almut Balleer; Britta Gehrke; Marvin Noeller
Monetary Policy Tightening and SME Bank-Credit Demand Substitution
Supriya Kapoor, Trinity College DublinCo-author(s): Michael Mahony, Anuj Pratap Singh
