Webex
14:00-17:00 CET
After a decade-long surge in prices, driven by an extended period of exceptionally low (nominal and real) interest rates, by changing housing preferences due to covid and home-working as well as demographics, real estate prices have stopped rising or even started to fall. In real terms (i.e. adjusted for CPI inflation), they have in fact been falling quite substantially over the past two years. Commercial property markets are affected more severely than housing prices so far. Large property developers and owners are showing serious signs of stress, some prominent cases are in default. Owners and financing banks are about to face valuation losses, which may also have to be realized. What is the further outlook for housing markets? What are future driving factors on the demand and the supply side, both in the short and in the longer run? What are risks and side effects from real estate market developments? How will housing affordability evolve? How to square housing needs with environmental constraints and imperatives from climate protections? What measures might or should policy makers take, in the areas of structural, fiscal and macroprudential policies?
This workshop brings together real estate market experts and researchers, central bankers and supervisors to discuss these themes in a compact, practitioner and policy-oriented format. It is a follow up to the SUERF Workshop: “Housing Markets in the 2020s: Valuation, drivers, risks and policies – Sep 21, 2022“, “SUERF I BAFFI Bocconi I OECD webinar: Brick by Brick: Building Better Housing Policies – June 28,2021”
Background documents
ECB I Real estate markets in an environment of high financing costs
ECB I Real estate markets, financial stability and macroprudential policy
ECB I The analytical toolkit for the assessment of residential real estate vulnerabilities
ECB I Commercial real estate and financial stability – new insights from the euro area credit register
BIS I CGFS report: Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing price risks
OECD I Brick by Brick (2)
OECD I Housing taxation report
OECD I Bricks, Taxes and Spending, Solutions for Housing Equity across Levels of Government
Real Estate Markets: Recent developments, outlook, financial stability risks
Jan Hannes Lang and Barbara Jarmulska, ECB Presentation (pdf)New Housing Policy Challenges in the Era of Decarbonisation and Digitisation – Insights from Brick by Brick
Boris Cournède and Volker Ziemann, OECD Presentation (pdf)Discussion of ‘Housing Taxation in OECD Countries’ and ‘Brick by Brick’ Vol. 2
Discussant: John Muellbauer, Nuffield College Presentation (pdf)
